Next week brings a heady mix of the political, the macroeconomic, the corporate, and the crypto. Here's five things we'll be watchingJanuary 20 bids farewell to one of the most controversial US presidents in living memory. After four years in the White House, Trump will bow out, leaving Biden as the 46th president.
Bond yields have marched higher and yield curves – the difference between short-dated and long-dated bond yields – have steepened, dragging the dollar higher and reflecting this perception that inflation will start to take root as the economy recovers, which eventually, in theory, will merit a rate rise.
Most notably, the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate – a market-based gauge of inflation expectations based on the difference between nominal bond yields and their inflation-linked counterparts – has topped 2% for the first time since late 2018. The prevailing consumer inflation rate is well below there. At the last count it was 1.4%.
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