John Goff in the lobby of the glass-faced, 20-story McKinney & Olive office tower in Dallas, which his Crescent Real Estate built and still manages. The lip-shaped sofa is by Cassina.
Back in 2008, when oil hit a record high of $147 a barrel , all the talk was of Peak Oil supply. Today oil trades at $53 and makes up just 2% of the index—and market watchers are pushing the idea that we’ve already passed Peak Oil“Before the world does not need any more oil, we will suffer a shortage,” he predicts. The world may be burning nearly 10% less oil than the pre-pandemic 101 million barrels per day, but, he says, “don’t mistake Covid-related weakness for a secular shift.
Indeed, Shale 2.0 has gotten religion about needing to “live within cash flow,” says Ben Dell, managing director at New York–based private equity outfit Kimmeridge Energy. He shares Goff’s enthusiasm for restrained growth.
Although Goff likes buying private deals via Contango, he insists that “the best opportunity is in the public market”He learned that lesson early from his years working with Rainwater, who, starting in the 1970s, helped Fort Worth’s Bass brothers turn a modest oil inheritance into a multibillion-dollar portfolio that at one point included 10% of Texaco, 5% of Marathon Oil and a controlling stake in the Walt Disney Company.
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