The recession is over in all but name. Why a retreat for stocks might be fast approaching, according to Deutsche Bank.

The organization that in the U.S. says whether the economy is in a recession or not seems to be asleep on the job.

Over the last 20 years, there has been a 73% correlation between the annual, rolling gains of the S&P 500 SPX, -0.10% and the level of the ISM manufacturing index. That makes sense — you would expect growth assets, like stocks, to be correlated to measures of economic growth. “As growth peaks over the next three months, we expect discretionary investors to pare their positioning from extremely elevated levels, and see retail investors as unlikely to buy the dip. Using the historical experience as a guide argues for a near -6% pullback if growth flattens out near the peak, a bigger -8.4% pullback on an inverted-V in growth,” said strategists led by Binky Chadha.

Cruise operators including Carnival CCL, +1.74% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH, +4.61% extended Tuesday’s gains in premarket trade, on optimism over when bookings can continue. Irish discount airline Ryanair Holdings RYAAY, -0.77% said European travel restrictions will mean passenger traffic at the low end of its guidance.

A recession is defined be TWO consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Never happened Market Watch. Suggest you delete this Tweet.

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