I’m referring to the sale of stocks you’re holding at a loss in order to offset the capital gains you have previously realized so far this year, and on which you will otherwise have to pay tax this coming April.
Many are not aware of this bounce back tendency, and so therefore miss out on the second half of this two-pronged year-end strategy. But it’s quite pronounced, as you can see from the chart below, which reports the average monthly returns in December and January of the trailing year’s worst- and best-performing stocks. To put losing stocks’ rebound in context, consider that on an annualized basis they produce the equivalent of a 55% gain in January.
What if you don’t want spend December out of the stocks you’d otherwise consider selling for tax-loss purposes? The only solution I know of is to find other securities that are highly correlated with them, and to substitute these new ones during the 30-day wash-sale period. To the extent your substitutes perform as well as your original holdings, you won’t be missing out on any gains while nevertheless being able to harvest tax losses.
You won’t always be able to find a security that is as highly correlated as Energy Select Sector SPDR is to Exxon Mobil, but your goal should be to find one with a correlation coefficient of 0.7 of higher. From a statistical point of view, that means you’re finding a security whose gyrations can explain or predict at least half of the movements of your tax loss sale candidate.
must sell when it says out
lmfao but i thought y’all said december was always bullish?
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