Geopolitics aside, the bull case rests on resurgent demand. The International Energy Agency reckons oil consumption will rise from its present level of about 97m bpd to 100m bpd—a return to pre-covid levels—by the end of the year, even before global aviation fully recovers. Damien Courvalin of Goldman Sachs, a bank, says consumers switching to oil from gas may have boosted demand by up to 1m bpd, leading to “critically low inventory levels”.
The bear case rests on patience, a Persian restoration and a Permian boom. If Russian exports are not cut off, then the impact of geopolitical tensions should dissipate by the summer. By then America will probably have raised interest rates, cooling growth and oil demand—just as extra supply from+ hits the market. A resumption of Iran’s nuclear deal, meanwhile, looks likelier than at any point since 2017, when it was torn apart. The associated lifting of sanctions could release another 1m bpd.
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