Business Maverick: Russian isolation chills debt market for ex-Soviet neighbours

, two-year recession that will endanger trade ties, tourism and billions of dollars of remittances for its ex-Soviet neighbours.While a potential cease-fire deal in Ukraine sparked a relief rally this week, warning signs are still flashing in the $17 billion pool of eurobonds from Tajikistan, Georgia, Belarus, Armenia, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Debt from Belarus, Russia and Ukraine has handed emerging-market investors the biggest loss since Moscow’s invasion on Feb.

Bonds issued by the countries directly involved in the crisis — Russia, Ukraine and Belarus — are already at pre-default levels. Elsewhere, routes for contagion vary. A “sharp and prolonged” economic downturn in Russia “may lead to a sustained deterioration of Tajikistan’s growth potential, primarily through a projected fall in remittance inflows,” Moody’s Investors Service said in a report on Wednesday, in which it put the country’s credit rating on review for downgrade.In Georgia, tourism is key. The travel industry accounts for about one third of the economy, with Russian holidaymakers comprising 15% of the total.

The nation’s eurobonds have handed emerging market investors the biggest loss since the invasion, Bloomberg indexes show. S&P Global Ratings warned on March 18 that the country’s credit score could be cut further.Energy-rich Kazakhstan’s main vulnerability is its financial ties with Russia, according to a JPMorgan report on March 25.

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