Here's what just happened that triggers stock market drops 71% of the time, warns Credit Suisse

Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion Advisor Solutions, argues the market has just notched two peaks. Last week, the Labor Department finally reported an ever-so-slight decline in inflation, as a measure of individual investor sentiment showed the greatest percent of individual investors that were bearish since 2009.Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion Advisor Solutions, argues the market has just notched two peaks.

“Earnings revisions have started to fall and 71% of the time when this happens, markets fall over the next quarter. Current PMIs imply significant further downside to revisions. We see clear risk of negative EPS in 2023,” said strategists led by Andrew Garthwaite. “What do we need to see to be more constructive? Clear signs of U.S. wage growth slowing, U.S. lead indicators falling sharply indicating that the Fed needs to do less to get unemployment rising above full employment, signs of a new paradigm showing that margins can stay high even as nominal GDP slows by [8 percentage points], clear cut undervaluation on [equity risk premium] model, or credit spreads discounting a recession,” Garthwaite and the team said.

It’s a big day on the retail front, as Home Depot HD reported a surprise rise in same-store sales growth, but Walmart WMT shares are getting hit by an earnings miss and outlook cut. The April retail sales report is expected to show an acceleration in spending, driven by auto sales. Industrial production and a homebuilder sentiment report also are due for release.

A wave of 13-F reports from top shareholders were filed at the Securities and Exchange Commission. Berkshire Hathaway revealed new stakes in Citigroup C , Paramount Global PARA and Celanese CE , among others. Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global Management, which has struggled this year, boosted stakes in several tech plays including CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD , Sea SE , Snowflake SNOW , ServiceNow NOW and Carvana CVNA .

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