Selloff puts S&P 500 on bear market’s doorstep. If history is a guide, there’s more pain ahead.

Back-to-back drops left the large-cap benchmark down 18.7% from its Jan. 3 record finish on Thursday, closing at 3,900.97. A fall of 20% from a recent peak is the traditional definition of a bear market. That would require a close below 3,837.25, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Back-to-back drops left the large-cap benchmark down 18.7% from its Jan. 3 record finish on Thursday, closing at 3,900.97. A fall of 20% from a recent peak is the traditional definition of a bear market.

So far, 61% of individual companies in the S&P 500 are in bear-market territory, observed Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners. The steepest fall, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 57%, occurred in the 17 months that marked the bear market that accompanied the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The longest was a 48.2% drop that ran for nearly 21 months in 1973-’74. The shortest was the nearly 34% drop that took place over just 23 trading sessions as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a global rout that bottomed out on March 23, 2020, and marked the start of the current bull market.

The analysts know is a bear market they are playing now until they can't play no more

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