Bear market beckons as stock volatility continues in 2022

The benchmark S&P 500 index fell below 3837.248 during Friday's session, a decline that on an intraday basis put it more than 20% below its Jan. 3 record closing high. However, the index closed above that level, and did not confirm it was in a bear market – frequently defined as a drop of at least 20% from a closing high.

If history is any guide, a bear market would mean more pain could be in store for investors. The S&P 500 has fallen by an average of 32.7% in 13 bear markets since 1946, including a nearly 57% drop during the 2007-2009 bear market during the financial crisis, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

That decline went into reverse at the start of 2022 as the Fed grew far more hawkish and signaled it would tighten monetary policy at a faster-than-expected clip to fight surging inflation. It has already raised rates by 75 basis points this year and expectations of more hikes ahead have weighed on stocks and bonds.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has vowed to raise rates as high as needed to kill inflation but also believes policymakers can guide the economy to a so-called soft landing. Adding to the volatility has been the war in Ukraine, which has caused a further spike in oil and other commodity prices.A few areas of the stock market have been spared. Energy shares have soared this year, along with oil prices, while defensive groups such as utilities have held up better than broader markets.On the flip side, shares of technology and other high-growth companies have been hit hard.

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