Earnings face reality check as economy slows

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Coal producer Coronado joins Atlassian in the super profits league, but a more challenging outlook awaits AMP, Commonwealth Bank and Telstra.

and the force of rising wage inflation pose a challenging outlook for some of Australia’s biggest companies which report profits this week, as they cope with the economy’s first rates tightening cycle in a decade.. The SP/ASX 200 Index is poised to open 7 points or 0.1 per cent lower from Friday’s close of 7015.6 points, the highest since June 9.Atlassian billionaires Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar; Atlassian surged 17 per cent on the Nasdaq.

This time, the coal producers have the edge over iron ore, which rose 2.9 per cent to $US106.95 a tonne in the spot market on Friday.Australian businesses were navigating a “mid-cycle slowdown” and speculation of a profit recession was overblown, said Hasan Tevfik, senior research analyst at MST Marquee, defining a profit recession as a 10 per cent decline in earnings per share.

“If you’re talking about 6 per cent inflation and you’ve got interest rates at 2 per cent, in the scheme of things, it’s not too bad.” Australia’s cash rate is 1.85 per cent and the June quarter consumer price index 6.1 per cent. The forward-looking bias of investors means expectations for 2023 take on greater meaning this season.

Analyst Mark Busuttil assumes a flat annual dividend of 16¢ a share, implying a final dividend of 8¢, given its balance of franking credits has been drained to just $41 million at the end of 2021.Finally, AMP CEO Alexis George set investors’ expectations straight at AMP’s annual general meeting in May when she warned: “Today we are not in a position to resume the payment of dividends to our shareholders.

 

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