CIARAN RYAN: In the past two years the world has witnessed the fastest bear market and quickest subsequent recovery. Now, increased levels of inflation and slow global economic growth have led to deliberations between experts about what part of the market cycle will come next – stagflation or deflation? Based on the evidence, it is possible to make the case for either.
And, second [there] is the risk of deflation downstream. So, as I say, the current debate is largely around stagflation – so lower growth and inflation at the same time – and not really any attention is being given to how the risk of potential deflation is actually increasing significantly, the higher inflation rates go up.
But that becomes incredibly difficult as inflation ticks up, and at the same time you see interest rates tick up, and that typically has a negative impact on markets. And then obviously from a stagflation perspective it’s not ideal, and you are looking for signs that it might be relieved in some way or form.
So it really matters quite a bit in terms of how you interpret that timeline into your investment strategy. ADRIAAN PASK: Well, it’s a strange position to be in because, as I say, there isn’t much talk about deflation. You’ll remember, for example, when we went through the Covid period, when we reported very high economic growth numbers following the depths of Covid – all that happened is a recovery to previous levels.
CIARAN RYAN: I guess it’s a challenge for unit trust managers who are looking at this scenario of deflation. How do they adjust to an environment where they’re using inflation as a benchmark? What’s the solution to that? Why this is important is when investors start to look at their various reports, whether your wealth manager is benchmarking you on inflation or whether your low-equity fund is looking at inflation-plus-3%, investors are going to start to notice that things aren’t looking quite right.
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