Asia’s stock markets were steady but fragile on Thursday, a day after their biggest drawdown in three months as investors weighed the risk of the Federal Reserve announcing a 100-basis-point interest rate hike next week to tackle sticky inflation.
“The best metaphor is that the Fed is not only driving the economy using a rear-view mirror but is now being forced to press the ‘rate rise’ accelerator just as bond markets are discounting an overtightening.” Two-year yields, which track near-term rate expectations, were steady at 3.7860%, up 22 basis points this week for a seventh straight weekly gain. The benchmark 10-year yield was at 3.4062%.
In currency markets, the US inflation shock and expectation of rate hikes in response has sent the greenback up to re-test recent multi-decade highs. Thursday moves were modest with the euro steady at $0.9978 and the Aussie taking a small lift to $0.6754 after some mixed employment data. “But what’s clear is that the market is wary of the level, and has tried to test the level a few times, which seems to suggest that if it breaks, it may overshoot quite rapidly.”
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