gross domestic product growth may reach 6.8 percent in 2022 despite external headwinds such as rising interest rates and higher commodity prices.
“We forecast real GDP growth of 6.8 percent in 2022 on strong domestic demand, reflecting normalization of economic activity after the pandemic and the government’s investment program,” it said. It said growth risks would stem from potential economic scarring from the pandemic, in particular, due to learning losses.
Fitch expects the general government deficit to narrow to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2022 and 2.4 percent of GDP by 2024, from 4.8 percent of GDP in 2021. It said this would be consistent with a narrowing of the budgetary central government deficit to 8.0 percent of GDP in 2022 and 6.3 percent of GDP by 2024, from 8.7 percent of GDP in 2021.