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What bankers in DFW are saying about a possible recession - Dallas Business Journal

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Local bankers believe that the job growth and population growth occurring in North Texas will help the region avoid the most severe impact of a recession.

Is the economy in a recession? It depends on who you ask.

Texas overall added 49,500 jobs in October, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Department of Labor. The state has experienced 5.4% job growth over the last 12 months compared to 3.6% for the entire country. Within Texas, Dallas-Fort Worth has added the most jobs. DFW grew at a 6.5% clip over 12 months as of September, the most recent month for which metropolitan labor data is available.

"If you were to simply compare this to 2008, banks have twice the amount of capital they had back then," Birdwell said."I don't think there's near the leverage that there was in the entire system." Rob Holmes, CEO of Texas Capital Bank, said he believes the U.S. is already in a recession based on the"textbook definition" of gross domestic product declining during two consecutive quarters.

"The bank market has been exuberant for a while and a lot of banks have competed aggressively on structure and price," Holmes said."I think the bank market will become much more rational in a slowed economic environment which will create opportunity for us we believe because we think we're in really good shape."

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