The difference between this comeback and the market's last failed bear market bounce

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Mike Santoli assesses the chances that this bounce is the turn in the market investors have been waiting for.

A 17% S & P 500 surge off a new bear-market low in a market drenched in stagflation panic? Been there. Such a rally rushing up to the index's 200-day average alongside retreating bond yields, the Volatility Index cracking below 20 and hopes the Federal Reserve would soon ease up on its tightening? Done that.

While hard to quantify or prove specific relevance, since the summer we've seen an accelerated meltdown in the crypto-trading complex – completing a $2 trillion peak-to-trough loss in notional crypto wealth – with no observable spillover into equities, credit markets or the broader banking system. With all of this one can build a defensible case that the market is displaying a tenacious resilience, feeding off a deep reservoir of investor skepticism and cautious portfolio positioning.

 

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