Guyana’s growth comes on top of growth in 2021 of 19.9% and in 2020 of 43.5%. Only one country has grown faster in history in a single year, and that was Libya in 2012 after the first civil war, and the growth was really only a rectification after a devastating contraction the previous year.
The difference is that Guyana has a population of about 800,000 people. The government is due to earn about $1-billion from oil revenue this year, reaching about $4.2-billion in 2027. That would be more than twice the country’s current budget of $2.5-billion. It would also mean an income of $5-million per person per year.It’s possible that the Guyana government could be sensible and create an oil fund like Norway did to invest for the future.
The planned step-down of carbon-based energy sources to mitigate global warming suddenly went into reverse. For the first half of the year, the oil price started pressing upwards strongly, starting at about $75 a barrel, with all kinds of other resources in tow. Oil’s price rise was impressive, but consider coal: it went from about $150 a tonne to about $400 a tonne.So that was the first half of the year. The second half was even crazier, because another big global trend took hold – recession.
Now it looks likely that oil will end the year where it began. But the coal price has stayed very high. Natural gas prices also shot up during the year, and have been bouncing around like crazy. But they have come down recently, as European stockpiles for the winter have been achieved.The Ukraine invasion was not what you might call a black swan event. Black swan events are dramatic, but have a very low chance of happening.
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