Oil and trouble: what lies ahead for SA fuel prices in 2023? | Business

The outlook for oil prices is uncertain, with risks to the upsideThe restart of a Western Cape refinery will also improve security of supply.Years gone by have more often than not been characterised by steep oil price movements.

In South Africa too, government came under immense pressure in 2022 to buffer consumers from fuel price hikes, and ultimatelyto fund a temporary reduction in the fuel levy. As Niall Kramer, an independent energy analyst, notes:"Guessing the oil price is a game nobody wants to be in. It will move. That's all you know. It will go up, or it will go down. And, frankly, that's why the majors don't get involved in any significant speculating. That is a highly risky game."In its latest forecast, the Energy Information Administration in the US predicts a more stable year ahead.

The Bank of America Global Research, however, expects Brent crude oil prices to average $100 per barrel in 2023, driven also by demand recovery in China as a result of the economy's post-COVID reopening and a drop in Russian supplies of about one million barrels per day as a result of European Union sanctions.

"While producers have finally caught up with post-pandemic demand, other risks remain next year, notably Russian output amid the new price cap [imposed by G7 nations] and its threats to cut output and not supply any countries abiding by it. That isn't a problem now, but if prices do start rising, that could accelerate the move quickly," Erlam writes in a note.A deep dive into the big business story of the week, as well as expert analysis of markets and trends.

_Business Eastern Cape needs a refinary as well.

_Business Why are we not buying crude from Russia MYANC

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