International Finance: The fog of war – and economics – at Davos

And then the jokes arrive: “What happens when you put 10 economists in a room? You’ll get 11 opinions.”The fact is that all forecasting is difficult and we should be grateful that some people still try. Predictions are especially demanding, as they say, when they concern the future.

That doesn’t seem like a big miss, but it’s massive. It means the IMF was expecting the world to have grown around $2.5-trillion more than it has. The expectation was for a normal year; the result was far below average.Well obviously, you default to extreme pessimism This is not a survey to be dismissed lightly; the economists participating come from all of the biggest banks in the world; in other words, they are from institutions with lots of skin in the game.What are they seeing here? Well, the obvious.

But here is the odd thing: one-third of respondents think a global recession will be “unlikely” this year. But even they expect weak growth in Europe and the US by huge proportions: 100% of chief economists and 91% in each region, respectively.the upside is that even those who anticipate recession believe it will be light

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