BNM may surprise market by holding OPR or signalling a pause ahead: Maybank IB

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It said the market overwhelmingly expects BNM to raise the rate by 25 basis points, its fifth in a row, at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday. theSun thesundaily BNM OPR MPC MaybankIB foreignexchange

: Maybank Investment Bank Bhd believes Bank Negara Malaysia may surprise by either holding the Overnight Policy Rate or making a “dovish hike” accompanied by explicit language to signal a pause ahead.“Another OPR hike in January could reinforce the upward spiral on the three-month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate , in our view, unless a compensating liquidity measure is announced,” it said in a note.

It said the market overwhelmingly expects BNM to raise the rate by 25 basis points, its fifth in a row, at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday. “It is true that languages in the last MPC statement in November keep the door open for more hikes but not without a caveat indicating that rate normalisation is not on any preset course,” Maybank IB said.

“Inflation is subject to volatility depending on the timing and extent of administrative price adjustments. Demand-pulled inflation requires monitoring, but may not necessarily sustain if reopening effect begins to subside and policy tightening weighs.

 

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