Business survey shows recession risks elevated

"The results ... indicate widespread concern about entering a recession this year," said NABE President Julia Coronado, founder and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC."For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect falling rather than increased employment at their firms in the next three months."

Respondents reported higher interest rates and costs as the biggest downside risks to their outlooks. Sixty-three percent of respondents reported rising wages over the past three months. That was unchanged from the October 2022 survey. They further reported that sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was relatively unchanged from the previous quarter.

"The survey results reveal an unevenness across indicators," said NABE Business Conditions Survey Chair Carlos Herrera, chief economist for Coca-Cola North America."Wages rose at a majority of respondents' firms in the last three months of 2022 and more firms added workers than reduced headcounts. But far more firms than in the past three years reported falling profit margins.

The survey comes on the heels of mass layoffs in several big-name tech businesses. Last week, Google’s parent company Alphabet laid off 12,000 employees. Microsoft laid off 10,000 employees. On Monday, streaming platform Spotify announced it was laying off 6% of its workforce. That's about 600 employees.

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