What horrors can sink stocks anew?
The sneaky threat: Lending data aren’t inflation-adjusted. If loan growth slows below core inflation rates — which exclude volatile food, energy, mortgage interest, transportation and tobacco prices — for long , it will dent growth, risking a far deeper, credit-driven recession stocks haven’t pre-priced.
Scarier, watch for one particular undiscussed global central bank shift: The US Federal Reserve and others, upset rate hikes aren’t slowing the economy, could instead re-impose reserve requirements they scrapped in 2020. Political pressure from recent bank failures renders this even likelier. Done wrongly and badly timed, it can torpedo lending. This very thing drove 1937′s huge US recession, which hammered Canadian stocks, too.