Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - May 11

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Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - May 11

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"I say to the Republicans out there — congressmen, senators — if they don’t give you massive cuts, you’re going to have to do a default.” — Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate for president, urging his party to take a tough stance in negotiating spending cuts to the federal budget, even if that ultimately brings the country to default.

Proposed EPA rules target power-plant emissions. The proposed new rules would drastically reduce greenhouse gases from coal- and gas-fired power plants — measures that will cost billions of dollars but that officials say will curb emissions that are warming the atmosphere and harming human health. Officials estimate the proposed rules will raise average utility bills by 2% by 2030, declining to less than 1% by 2040.

El Niño is likely to form this summer and reach moderate to potentially strong intensity by the winter, NOAA says, accelerating global warming and altering weather patterns across a broad swath of the world, including the U.S.Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. Dow opened down around 150 points and is currently down around 300 points. In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong -0.1%. China -0.3%. India -0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.6%.

Treasury reported a budget surplus of $176 billion in April, down from $308 billion one year earlier. That left the deficit through the first seven months of the fiscal year at $925 billion, up from $360 billion a year earlier. Lower-than-expected revenue and rising outlays are contributing to a wider deficit and making it more difficult for the Treasury to stay under the debt ceiling. • Outside markets: The U.S.

• A key Colorado River reservoir is rising by more than a foot a day. A large snowpack is melting into Lake Powell in Utah and Arizona, weeks after its surface sank to an all-time low. The reservoir is expected to deepen by 70 feet by the fall. It offers some relief after a historic drought in the Southwest. But it’s not a permanent fix, and Colorado River water use will still have to be cut drastically. Washington Post.

What is new. The Biden administration introduced new policies on Wednesday to create “tougher consequences for people who cross the border illegally,” U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas said at a press conference.Bottom line: Observers say the only way to stop the migrant deluge is to radically change the incentives to come.— Chinese consumer inflation slows to lowest level in two years. China's annual inflation rate fell to 0.1% in April 2023 from 0.

— China got lion’s share of World Bank contracts. Businesses in China received almost one third of World Bank-funded international contracts, in dollar terms, over the past decade, more than 10 times the value of those awarded to U.S. companies, according to the Government Accountability Office. But… A series of meetings this week during ambassador Nicholas Burns’ China trip represent the highest-level public engagements between the two powers since relations soured over suspected a Chinese spy balloon.

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