articulated what a lot of CEOs are feeling. In a memo ordering employees back at least four days per week, Iger wrote “in a creative business like ours, nothing can replace the ability to connect, observe, and create with peers.” This fear of lost creativity and competitive edge, along with concerns about onboarding new employees, sustaining productivity, and employee discipline all support moves to increase office-based work.
But if firms are ramping up the return to offices, why don’t the data for office use show it? Office occupancy, rental price, and employment data all show the ongoing tension between employers and employees. The indicators we have for office work have been static for over a year, and aren’t displaying a major upward trend.which measures office keycard entry swipes in ten metropolitan areas. Those numbers aren’t moving much. Kastle’s most recent occupancy estimate is 49.3%, up from 42.
And like Kastle’s key card swipes, Placer’s office visitation data aren’t showing major increases. Its April 2023 numbers “remained virtually unchanged when compared to April 2022,” and “continue to hover around 60% of what they were four years ago” in the early stages of the pandemic. A third set of indicators appeals to economists—market rents, new construction, and occupancy for commercial office space. These market demand-based indicators also show continuing weakness.
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