Stock market today: Wall Street drifts higher, marking 4th winning week for S&P 500

So far, the economy has been able to avoid a recession even though the Fed has jacked rates up at a furious pace for more than a year in hopes of driving down inflation. The highest rates since 2007 have helped inflation come down some, but it's still above everyone's comfort level.

“I can't tell you precisely when this recession will come to roost, but it feels likes it's coming,” said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. “And the market is not priced for it. I don't want to be dramatic and say a day of reckoning is coming, but there will be a wakeup call.”

“This is the market thinking we’re going to muddle along and then the Fed is going to get out of the driver's seat: The Fed is going to cut rates, and we're going to power into 2024," Agati said. “And I think that's awfully delusional.” The wide expectations among traders is that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week. If it does, that will be the first meeting where the Fed hasn't hiked rates in more than a year. After that, the widespread bet is that the Fed may hike one more time in July before going on hold or even cutting rates by the end of the year.

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