The Bain-Altagamma analysis sets out two scenarios: A positive one driven by China’s recovery and sustained growth from Europe and the Americas, with growth projected to be between 9 and 12 percent on 2022. A realistic scenario shows overall growth more severely impacted by a slowdown in mature markets, and a slower recovery in China, leading to growth of between 5 and 8 percent on 2022.
Federca Levato, partner at Bain & Company and leader of the firm’s EMEA Luxury Goods and Fashion practice, co-author of the report, said in an interview that luxury consumers are now valuing uniqueness over status, beyond aspirational items, in “an elevation of the market toward uber luxury, less purchases but better.” Stores are becoming “entertainment platforms, less transactional, offering good times,” and brands are increasingly moving into hospitality, opening VIP lounges and clubs.
Levato said a question mark remains about the evolution of the U.S. market during the rest of the year, as “a huge improvement is not expected ahead,” while department stores are “changing skin, struggling as the customer base is changing and they are targeting the new generations.”