Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - July 5

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Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - July 5 gold Fed FOMC

Negotiations deadlock between Teamsters union and UPS

A federal judge has restricted some Biden administration officials from communicating with social media companies. The judge, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, handed down the win to GOP states in a lawsuit accusing the government of going too far in efforts to combat Covid-19 disinformation. Details below.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's president, claimed Russia had placed"objects resembling explosives" on the roofs of buildings at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, Europe's biggest. Russia seized control of the plant, in south-eastern Ukraine, in February 2022. Zelenskyy said he had discussed Russia's"dangerous provocations" at Zaporizhia with Emmanuel Macron, France's president, who agreed to"keep the situation under maximum control together.

USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service set the tariff-rate quota levels for fiscal year 2024. More in Trade Policy section. After a strong first half, the S&P 500 is historically more likely to rise in the second half and tends to notch bigger advances, according to a CFRA analysis. The S&P 500 finished the first half up 16%. The S&P 500 has gained an average of 4.2% during all second halves since 1945, rising 69% of the time. When the S&P 500 is coming off a first-half gain of 10% or more, the broad index on average adds 8% in the second half and moves higher 82% of the time, according to CFRA.

President Xi Jinping of China reinforced his long-standing objections against the U.S., urging an end to "hegemonism" and "power politics." Meanwhile, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on the forum to denounce nations that manipulate terrorism as a policy tool— a concealed jab at Pakistan, which India charges with supporting militants in the disputed Kashmir region.

Despite these challenges, the leading status of the dollar isn't lost yet, Then writes, but he notes there's need for modernization to maintain this status. The U.S. dollar's infrastructural backend has been described as"aging rails," slowing down and increasing the cost of transactions, particularly those of an international nature.

Legislation designed to protect consumers and regulate stablecoins is currently being written by the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, with a set date for votes on July 19. By doing this, Then says the U.S. hopes to avoid an incoherent regulatory environment that could encourage rogue actors to look for jurisdictions with poor oversight and weak consumer safeguards.

• Bitcoin experienced an 84% increase from January through June, surpassing the $30,000 mark and marking its best first half since 2019. This upturn overshadows stocks, including the tech-influenced Nasdaq. Its bounce back follows a difficult bear market and a crash caused by the allegations of fraud against crypto exchange FTX in 2022, which resulted in Bitcoin reaching multiyear lows.

However, Bitcoin's future price remains problematic to predict due to the lack of fundamentals. Targets for year-end range from $40,000 to, more conservatively, $35,000, but many expect Bitcoin to hit new record highs by 2024. Despite notable challenges, the overall sentiment leans towards cryptos continuing to rise, the article concludes.

But the effects of a vigorous global campaign of interest-rate hikes, coupled with difficulties China encountered recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, have seen prices drop by over 10% since the start of the year. This holds even after accounting for OPEC's commitment to supply reductions. • Thailand is preparing contingency plans to deal with a potential drought that could last years and squeeze global supplies of sugar and rice. Rainfall may be as much as 10% below average this season, and an El Niño could lower precipitation even further over the next two years. Bloomberg.

— The situation surrounding Ukraine's Zaporizhzia nuclear power plant continues to draw attention amidst the ongoing conflict with Russian invaders. The plant, which is the largest in Europe, was seized by Russia during its early invasion efforts. Since this event, both sides have been involved in back-and-forth accusations about the facility. The latest development includes claims by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy based on their intelligence sources.

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