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“The rock in the DJ looks fantastic,” Dittmar says. “Definitely sub-$50 break evens, even into the low forties in some cases. We think Chevron was able to get a pretty good deal on PDC. It’s paying well less than $1 million per location, whereas inventory of that quality in the Permian would cost you significantly more than that.
Having said that, Dittmar also says he thinks the margins of the Permian region could hold a good deal of upside potential for buyers. “One of the stories we're seeing in the Permian Basin is that there's the locations you think are there based on existing wells and proven results, and then there's the locations that no one has tried that on bench in that area yet. So geologically, it looks like it has a lot of potential.
When asked if he foresees more consolidation coming to the U.S. shale business, Dittmar’s answer was unequivocal. “There's still too many public companies out there - I think that's been a consensus in shale since the get-go, almost,” he says. “And the more consolidated industry makes sense from a strategic perspective. It makes sense for investors. You have lower G&A costs. We're better able to tackle the regulatory and environmental concerns.
As Dittmar notes, these have really been the overriding goals that have driven consolidation in the shale sector since the shale revolution began in earnest in the first years of this century, and there seems little reason to expect these drivers to shift in the coming years.
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