A pump jack stands at dusk in the Permian Basin area in Texas, U.S. Photographer: Angus Mordant/BloombergConventional wisdom used to be that as the major integrated oil companies acquired smaller independents, production growth in the Permian Basin would slow. The same wisdom held that regardless which companies were operating in the Permian and other shale plays, domestic U.S. production would peak in the mid-2020s and then begin to decline.
That’s a convenient outlook if you’re a member of OPEC. In recent years, U.S. shale has single-handedly been meeting increases in global oil demand, forcing theto avoid a price collapse. No doubt the members of OPEC, along with co-conspirator Russia, would prefer to see U.S. production reversed sooner rather than later.
After 2025, the “baton gradually passes to OPEC to meet continued – albeit slowing – growth in global oil demand,” according to the most recent IEA long-term outlook. Perhaps more importantly, the Permian has proven to be among the most profitable assets in the companies’ global portfolios. Comments like that should serve as a wake-up call to global oil markets. The Permian is not only driving growth for the two companies – Exxon produces a whopping 4 million barrels of oil equivalent every day – it’s also proving to be among their most profitable and robust sources of free-cash flow.
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