The stock market was on edge into the nonfarm payroll report on Friday fearing a hot labor market could push the Fed to hike rates again.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on October 04, 2023 in New York City.drop, and the CME FedWatch tool for predicting whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Nov. 1 raised the odds of a hike by 10 percentage points.bottomed by 10:08 a.m Eastern, and closed the day up by 1.2%. The 10-year bottomed around 10:50 a.m. and recovered about a third of its losses.
The reason wage gains can exceed the Fed's 2% inflation target is that labor costs are only part of the inflation picture, and goods prices have been declining in recent months. Durable-goods inflation, for example, is actually negative for the last year, as 2021's skyrocketing used car prices have begun to correct. So the level of wage growth the Fed wants to see, to assure that its 2% inflation target is within reach, doesn't have to get much below where it is now, Crofoot said.
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