In case you've been out on the golf course frantically trying to squeeze in those last few rounds before the weather turns, it is safe to say that the direction of interest rates remains the primary driver of the action in the stock market. From a near-term perspective, anyway.
For example, you might have expected stocks to tank early in the week on the horrific scenes in Israel and Gaza. But what did stocks do on the news of more than 1,000 dead and counting? Oh, that's right, the major indices moved higher on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Nicely higher. Except when Uncle Sam - or in this case, Janet Yellen - is trying to sell more bonds than anybody really wants. As was the case on Thursday. You see, the very minute the latest Treasury auction of $20 billion insurged. And the machines sold stocks hand over fist. Before you could finish the sandwich on your desk, the Dow had dropped 400 points. What had been a nice shade of green on the screen was now completely red.
Who knew that the big risk this year was a US economy that would be too hot? Coming into 2023, strategists were bearish following the market’s drubbing the previous year. The...