A Switzerland-based plumbing company could be ground zero for the next US recession — and the signals it’s flashing are worrisome

That company, Ferguson, says its revenue growth is slowing. It didn't pinpoint specific causes, but Mould said the implications are clear.

Mould's view is that the company's weak sales stem from the sluggish US housing market. Because a home is such major purchase, it's one consumers are hesitant to make if they're unsure of their job or financial prospects. That helps make home sales a major indicator of the health of the economy. Ferguson, which is headquartered in Switzerland, said its organic sales rose 6.5% over the six months that ended on January 31. But for the full fiscal year it expects to finish with growth of just 3% to 5%, which means there will be a big dropoff.

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