The Lunar New Year holiday surge in Shanghai Futures Exchange metal inventories seems to have peaked with registered stocks of copper, aluminum and lead all falling over the last week.
The rise in ShFE zinc inventories has closely matched last year’s pattern, while aluminum has seen a highly muted rebuild by historical standards. This year the jump in exchange stocks likely reflects the combination of fast domestic production growth and higher imports. If that turns out to be this year’s seasonal peak, it means the rebuild has been extremely muted relative to the last four years.
Lead is less exposed to the new year holiday effect, having its own seasonality in the form of car battery kill rates over the northern hemisphere winter months. ShFE stocks have grown to 20,713 tons, the highest tally since December 2020. The build has been mirrored on the London market, where the London Metal Exchange has been fast-tracking Chinese companies wanting to list their brands. LME stocks have risen by 21% so far this year.Global exchange stocks of tin, by contrast, are showing divergent trends.