Since B.C. began its push more than 10 years ago to develop a liquefied natural gas industry, environmental groups and the BC Green Party have warned that the province could end up with stranded assets in a decarbonizing world weaning itself off of fossil fuels.
“The demand and supply picture is not looking favourable for B.C. LNG,” said Stefan Pauer, report co-author and manager of technology and economic analysis at Clean Energy Canada. “And betting the province’s economy on the fossil fuel may instead deliver rising gas and electricity prices for families while worsening climate change by locking out cleaner, cheaper energy sources.”
Clean Energy Canada’s report notes that Japan, South Korea and China are expected to be the biggest markets for B.C. LNG exports. But it notes that demand for LNG in Japan has been falling, partly due to Japan’s reversal on nuclear power. It also notes that China—which recently surpassed Japan as the world’s largest importer of LNG—has begun to experience slower-than-expected economic growth.
For the Asia Pacific, the projections vary from an increase of 130 per cent to a decline of 40 per cent by 2050 compared to today. Much depends on how many countries adopt and meet net-zero climate change policy targets.“Global LNG export capacity is anticipated to increase by 43 per cent from today by the end of the decade, just as B.C.’s export projects are planned to come online,” the report notes.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum also recently produced its annual global gas outlook that looks out to 2050. “All these really small countries, which are marginal gas buyers now, are expected to grow pretty significantly,” Archer said. “In fact, we have it growing by five or six times.” “One thing LNG providers like to point out is that Canadian LNG has a lower carbon footprint than most other LNG,” Archer said. “So even in a declining market like Japan, if Japan puts a premium on green LNG, there is a market share that Canada could capture here.
B.C. LNG producers will be competing with producers in Australia, Qatar, Malaysia and the Middle East that don’t have to meet similar requirements.