div > div.group > p:first-child"> From October through December, every upbeat fundamental trend or would-be positive catalyst was ignored or mocked by a seller-dominated market that dropped just about 20 percent from high to low over three months.
Dramatic market lows after a bad correction are usually"retested" within several weeks, you say? Nope, the S&P 500 is up 23 percent in three-and-a-half months with little more than a 3 percent pullback along the way. Earnings forecasts have been slashed by the most in years, and are now posing 4 percent drop for the first quarter? Stocks are apparently looking ahead, and the more-stable-earning sectors have led the upside.
After all, the S&P is simply at levels it first reached some 15 months ago in the furious, giddy rally following the big 2017 corporate tax cut — and markets that reclaim a new high after more than a year going sideways in a jagged range can be said to have formed some kind of base, as happened from 2015-2016.
Maybe we'll see, and perhaps Fed forbearance, a firm economy and a budding tech-darling IPO boom will push the mood from cautious optimism to outright exuberance. Even a stunted, equivocal version of the 1999 market would make for meaningful upside, if not of the most durable kind. Craig Johnson, technical strategist at Piper Jaffray, noted Friday that the number of S&P 500 stocks making new four-week highs had receded to 22 percent, from well above 30 percent back in February. That's arguably a modest divergence with an S&P 500 clicking to greasy year-to-date highs.
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