It might seem premature, even ridiculous, to ask such a question now. The S&P 500 index is still 1.3% off its all-time high of 2930.75, despite gaining 2.1% to close at 2892.74 this past week.
Even from its inception, few have really trusted this bull market. Every rise, fall, and period of stagnation has been cited as proof that the bull market is on its last legs. Bears warned that the bounce off the market’s bottom in 2009 was a head fake; the S&P 500 finished the year up 23%. During the European debt crisis in 2011, the S&P 500 dropped 19.4%—almost meeting the threshold for a bear market—before closing the year flat.
And who knows how long that might be? Barron’s spoke to three strategists, each with his own reasons for continued bullishness. Finally, the large generation of millennials—those born from 1981 to 1996—are set to boost their spending and investing as they enter their prime earning years of 26 to 50. That suggests this cycle could have even more room to run. “There’s still a lot of gas left in the tank,” Lee says.
Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Binky Chadha, chief U.S. equity and global strategist at Deutsche Bank, draws a straight line between economic expansions and bull markets. On average, recessions have been associated with declines of about 21% for the S&P 500, according to Chadha. In fact, the economy has continued to demonstrate its resilience. Pockets of the U.S. manufacturing economy saw a recession in late 2015, but the broader economy didn’t, and stocks never slipped into a bear market.
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, J.P. Morgan While many strategists and investors try to predict the end of the current cycle, J.P. Morgan chief U.S. equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas thinks it may be time to reconsider its very existence.
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If we avoid a bubble, I say yes We always have a bubble and excess and inflation before a recession and bear market
Wasn't it a bear market last year? Do they even have true definitions for bull or bear markets?
No.
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