A reader sent me an analysis calling for a “Monster reversion trade for the ages” based on the extreme under-performance of the Equal Weight SPX prior to the last two bear cycles. I have added the nominal view of RSP for context.
Market breadth readings indicate an undeniable truth: most stocks in the S&P 500 are vastly underperforming a handful of mega-cap behemoths. Well of course, it “can” keep going. This market with its crossed signals and failed has been a challenge. Like riding a bucking bronco or worse, a nasty and pissed-off bull. But the fact is that when coloring the above analysis with actual historical facts, the RSP/SPY ratio negatively diverged during phases where the nominal SPY, and RSP for that matter, were rising. Just like today.
. That seems to me to be an important qualifier. The big reversion trade in 2009 came after a pervasive market crash. The big reversion trade in 2020 also came after a market crash, of sorts.
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