There was a brief explosion of interest on Monday morning in the idea that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates at its July meeting. Fed Chairman JeromeJan Hatzius, the Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs, put out a note on Monday morning arguing that there is afor a cut at the July 30-31 meeting.
Inflation then jumped much higher in January and then remained above the two percent target for the following three months. So far, we have had one month of PCE data below target this year. While it is true that we’re likely to get another month of mild PCE inflation when the June data comes out,. That cannot plausibly be considered enough data to give the Fed confidence that it will not see another move higher.But that’s not the way the Fed will look at it.
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