) ended Monday higher. Most investor attention is focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, of which Wells Fargo Senior Economist Tim Quinlan argues that
The markets are certainly expecting language that's gonna show, uh, the fed is, is do, as Saddam said and that as you guys said, they're expecting, you know, 75% are expecting a 25 basis cut.I mean, the markets have had a very strong comeback from that uh August 5th selloff.And I would highlight last week's retail sales number, the core number up 0.3% in nominal terms, 0.7% in real terms.
Not just the first cut, but beyond that, seeing yields pull back a little bit today in advance of that, we've got some other feds be coming across the span of the week as well, broad based rally as well.We, we were talking for a while about the need for it.
Uh And we know also that the algorithms are very much focused on every word we, we, we have seen in the past how the algorithm will move and then once, once what the market is waiting for September 18th and whether there'll be a rate cut and how, how warm he is towards that, the algorithms will either push the market higher the bond markets and so on.
And there's a tug of war in the market, by the way, with those who say, hey, watch out for that number. If that happens, then the Fed has got to acknowledge that they are worried about increasingly worried about the labor market because that would suggest that the numbers that we have seen suggesting a resilient labor market has been off.
So this is the market saying give us the 25 basis points as long as it is about inflation coming down. I think the market is going to be looking for those names increasingly as yields continue to come down. But the fact of the matter is the market does well and poorly under Republicans and also under Democrats.
So really the conversation here is around anti competitive behavior in a statement following Friday's ruling for CEO he called it a victory quote, not only for food, but also for consumers. And the consumer also is asking for in a sense they want to centralized place, they want to make it easier.So it's, it's going to be interesting to track whatever happens here.A that the Saga of Paramount continues now, the saga continues.
Um And the Ceo Eli Glickman saying in the release that the results in the second half will be better in the first than the first half.He says combined with current favorable demand trends now, like the other one, if you pull back this chart, five years, like many shipping companies um soared during the pandemic because its services were needed.
The ISM index, another bellwether has been in negative territory for, you know, most of the last two years. But even if we were you know, these, these have been gonging warning for for more than two years, not, not particularly helpful measures.Tim then in your forecast in the new year to intermediate term here?
So, you know, if you're really reliant on the labor market and the labor market is weakening, kind of argues for a slower pace of growth at a minimum, but we don't see enough of a deterioration yet to push us into the recession side of things. And it is simultaneously true that consumer sentiment, consumer spending last week's retail sale continue to come in better than expected.But you know, you, you, you've got to kind of call the balls and strikes here based on the hard data.
I think what Powell is apt to do is just sort of make the business case for how the fed has largely been successful in bringing down inflation to within spitting distance of its target. Um one of the challenges in the copper space is that over time, the quality of the copper as you extract it from the mine goes down somewhat.
Um There is however soft demand right now and there's also kind of like um high inventory levels and that's not a great combination. And ultimately, uh what we're interested in is finding the best mining companies, the ones that understand that in order to have a license to operate, they need to be um you know, cognizant of the communities that they operate in the workforces, indigenous populations, all of that and Freeport is very good at all of those things.
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