Former President Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in at least one betting market after receiving a surprise boost as the Democratic National Convention continues in Chicago. Trump, who was surpassed by Harris in the prediction markets a week ago, has regained his position as the frontrunner on PolyMarket, where traders on Wednesday gave him a 52% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. Harris' odds dropped to 47%.
Trump also saw a boost in his odds on BetUS Wednesday, though the former president was still barely trailing Harris on the platform as of early afternoon with an implied probability of 52.38% to 54.55%. Harris continues, as she has for weeks, to lead Trump on PredictIt, though her odds fell one point Wednesday to 55%, while Trump sat at 48% on the site.
Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane, an expert on prediction markets, told FOX Business Trump's surge on PolyMarket in recent days is "pretty significant movement," especially because there is nothing definitive that he could point to suggesting the reason behind the rise besides the speculation that RFK might drop out and endorse Trump.