Why the next bear market could shave 35% off the Dow

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Mark Hulbert explains why the next bear market in stocks could sink the Dow 35%

Predicting when the next bear market will occur is notoriously difficult. Just ask stock-market timers. But what about predicting the severity of the next bear market?

The first hypothesis I tested is that a bear market’s severity is a function of the prior bull market’s length. Some have worried that this might be the case, since many assume that the current bull market is the longest in U.S. market history. The chart shows that the Dow’s average loss in the first group of bear markets was 27.8%, versus an average loss of 34.5% for the second group of bear markets. Unfortunately, given the relatively small sample size and the variability in the data, this difference is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining whether a pattern is real.

 

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MktwHulbert 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

MktwHulbert Pundits are always trying to predict the next big drop. I'm loving this market because of so many bears right now are sitting on cash missing out on the next big move. When they finally capitulate and jump in, markets are going higher.

MktwHulbert such a cheery headline, thanks for nothing

MktwHulbert More.

MktwHulbert Please do. Prices move inversely to yields. $$

MktwHulbert So we will be where we were in Feb 2016? Ok

MktwHulbert oh ya? Those numbers look familiar... 👤🤷🏼‍♂️🍿 but unfortunately we going up to 27 b4 we go down like we supposed to some time ago... ya heard it both ways now plus my rants and dates on my feed. p.a.m.b B4DaMoves

this guy has been writing the same garbage for 5 years...you guys are so desperate for filler...use his toupee...

Fear Marketing.

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