If you want to know if we're still in a bull market, don't ask Alexa. Just watch Amazon's stock price.
Amazon is popular on both Main Street and Wall Street. 53 analysts currently rate the stock a Buy. Two have Holds and there are zero Sells.The most important thing I learned is that soldiers watch what their leaders do.Similar to generals on a battle field, market generals are normally the last to fall when cycles near their conclusion.
"Peak Oil" was a big investment theme at the time. If you thought the world was running out of oil, it was easy to extrapolate forward the profit growth oil service firms were enjoying. Schlumberger was the"best of breed" oil services name.When the stock made a double top in June 2008, Wall Street was still bullish. At the time, there were 20 Buy ratings, 3 Holds, and zero Sells .
When Microsoft failed to eclipse its previous high in the spring of 2000, the shares were still a consensus Buy on Wall Street. Second, while it can be profitable to ride these stocks in a late-cycle environment when leadership thins, one must be vigilant in managing risk. When the cycle makes its final turn, the heroes of a bull market often turn into villains the next cycle. Just like Microsoft and Schlumberger in the previous two cycles, stocks like Amazon may very well underperform in the next bull market.