Housing Market to Reach “Cyclical Bottom” in Early 2023

from RBC Economics forecasts the housing market will reach a “cyclical bottom” in early 2023.

The high interest rate environment spurred a “massive correction,” which prompted home resales to sink 25% in 2022, reversing outsized gains seen in 2020 and 2021. Meanwhile, benchmark prices saw the sharpest decline on national MLS HPI record, falling 13% from the February peak. By the end of 2022, activity began to stabilize in the majority of local markets, including Toronto and the rest of southern Ontario and Vancouver and the rest of Lower Mainland BC. Only a few markets in the Prairies and Quebec were yet to see signs of stabilization by the close of 2022.

In Ontario, for example, the index is off more than 20% in some markets, including Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, and London. In Toronto, the index is down 14%, and in Vancouver, it’s down 8%. Calgary and St. Johns are among the few markets that have “bucked” the price correction trend.

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