As much as 1.4 billion square feet of U.S. office space could become functionally obsolete by the end of the decade.
"The relationship between office employment growth and office demand is going to re-solidify and strengthen in the coming era," Corbett said."It's going to get worse before it gets better." But it's too early to say just how many office buildings may be at risk for that outcome, if they remain obsolete as office space and can't easily become a new use, she continued.
Even for owners who have identified major renovations or conversion into a new use as a logical play for their portfolios, the capital markets remain frozen, making it tough to find capital to help fund a significant overhaul to make those buildings relevant in a post-pandemic world. For properties that don't have a loan expiration for many years, that could allow time for the economy and capital markets to recover, but a significant amount of loans backed by office properties are coming due in the coming years.
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