“Higher for longer” is the new refrain. Rates as high as they are and sitting there will bring pain, particularly for the overleveraged. There are many who have been hanging on for dear life, waiting for the rates to come down, who are now wondering how they will make it..Some economists are predicting that we’re looking at rates ticking down no sooner than next spring. Now no one is even considering a reduction in 2023.
Extended amortizations have absorbed a huge amount of the turbulence and have given the appearance of market strength and resilience, but renewals and unemployment will be the curveballs. My feeling, based on the conversations I am having with clients and colleagues, is that even if prices dip again the move-up buyers who tend to drive the market will be ok, they will just be impatiently wondering where the inventory went. They will come back.Article content
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