In Today's Digital Newspaper The U.S. economy added 209,00 jobs last month, according to Labor Department data released this morning, coming far short of economist estimates. That's the least amount of jobs added in a month since December 2020. The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 3.6%, meeting estimates of 3.6%. We have details and impacts in the Markets section.
Russia has continued to complain that the Black Sea Grain Initiative has not been fully implemented relative to provisions that were aimed at boosting Russian exports of fertilizers and grains. However, Interfax reported that head of the Russian Agriculture Ministry indicated the country exported a record 60 million tonnes of grain in 2022-23. For more info on this topic, see Russia & Ukraine section.
International leaders are making efforts to salvage an international deal that enables Ukrainian grain shipments by sea as the agreement is set to expire in less than two weeks. More info in Russia & Ukraine section. U.S. equities yesterday: Al three major indices registered losses in the wake of the stronger-than-expected private sector jobs update from ADP ahead of Friday's release of the broader Employment figures from the Department of Labor. The Dow ended down 366.38 points, 1.07%, at 33,922.26. The Nasdaq was down 112.61 points, 0.82%, at 13,679.04. The S&P 500 declined 35.23 points, 0.79%, at 4,411.59.
4.1%: Average vacancy rate for industrial real estate in the U.S. in the second quarter, up from 3.5% in the first quarter and the highest level since mid-2021, according to Cushman & Wakefield.U.S. trade deficit reached $69.0 billion in May due to a significant drop in import growth. While both imports and exports experienced a decrease, with imports sliding by 2.3% and exports slightly less at 0.8%, the outcome has been a modest change in the overall trade deficit.
Data for the first five months of 2023 showed U.S. imports of Chinese goods totaled nearly $169 billion, a 24% drop from $223 billion in the same period last year. In contrast, U.S. exports to China were slightly higher during the first five months at $62 billion. However, May exports to China were the lowest in more than two years at $10.7 billion.
The Army & Air Force Exchange Service, commonly known as the Exchange, ranks as the 54th-largest retailer in the United States. Run by the government, it operates over 2,000 big-box stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and restaurants in U.S. military bases and over 30 other nations. Despite falling under the Department of Defense, it doesn't receive significant financial aid from the government.
In an article on this topic, Lauren Debter, a Forbes reporter, emphasizes the importance of this massive government-run operation for service members based in the U.S. and abroad. Through her visit to Fort Cavazos in Killeen, Texas, she provides insights into how Shull has transformed the Exchange from being close to bankruptcy to a competitive retailer. • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with only the British pound slightly higher against the greenback.
• The Teamsters union has ramped up preparations for a potential strike after contract talks with the United Parcel Service hit a stalemate. The inability to reach an agreement could have significant consequences for the economy given UPS's crucial role in international commerce, analysts note. The parties failed to reach an agreement after extended negotiations that went through the July 4 holiday.
Of note: The looming strike comes at a time when UPS is grappling with decreasing revenues after three years of rapid growth. Additionally, a brief walkout could have severe financial implications, as demonstrated by a 1997 strike by UPS workers that cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
The grain initiative, struck a year ago between the United Nations and Turkey following Russia's invasion, played a key role in exporting almost 33 million tons of grain from Ukraine, a major global grain producer, thus lowering global food prices and strengthening the sector. But now, as it's up for renewal, the backdrop is filled with Ukraine's counteroffensive aided by Western governments against Russian opposition.
If the pact collapses, a broader shift towards alternative Ukraine route options, such as the Danube River ports, rail, and road transit via the EU border, is expected. But these options present logistical costs for exporters, as transporting grains across longer distances on different-sized rail tracks increases costs.
Some China watchers signal this unexpected decision indicates a deeper economic crisis in China than initially believed. They assert that previous appointments, confidently made by Xi, demonstrated over-confidence in the economy and are now triggering major readjustments. Yellen met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on Friday, defending American actions to protect its national security as the countries ratchet up trade controls on each other."The United States will, in certain circumstances, need to pursue targeted actions to protect its national security," Yellen said Friday, according to prepared remarks.
— California to modify air pollution rules in deal with truck makers. California, in partnership with major truck manufacturers, will be redefining their air pollution rules to expedite the transition to electric trucking. The agreement states that these manufacturers will gradually phase out fossil fuel trucks by 2036.
Vegetable oil prices fell by 2.4%, even though lower palm prices were somewhat offset by an increase in soyoil and rapeseed oil prices. Meanwhile, the cost of dairy and sugar went down in June, whereas the meat price index remained almost consistent. Specifically, in the European Union, an ongoing shift from beef and pig meat to poultry is anticipated. Similarly, in North America and Oceania — which have historically preferred beef — a significant dip in per capita consumption is expected.
Of note: The OECD and FAO call for investments in innovation, productivity gains, and reductions in production's carbon intensity to ensure food security, affordability, and sustainability long-term. This drug will specifically benefit patients with early Alzheimer's disease, meaning those with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia confirmed to have amyloid plaques in their brains. However, those with more advanced stages of the disease might not benefit from the drug, due to potential increased safety risks.
OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE — Surprisingly, illegal border crossings at the United States' southern frontier have been on a downward trend despite a relaxation in border control policies post-pandemic. The average daily crossings have dipped to 3,360 since May 12, a significant drop from the previously recorded 10,000 before the cessation of Title 42 border control authorities. These authorities allowed migrants to be more easily expelled based on public health.
Nederland Laatste Nieuws, Nederland Headlines
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Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - July 6
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