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Here's why stocks are still vulnerable in September

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Stocks still aren't cheap, rates still seem like they want to push higher, and China is definitely weaker. All of which leaves stocks vulnerable in September.

Well, thank goodness that is over. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole comments were mildly hawkish, but the market had the tone perfect before the speech started on Friday. Powell reiterated: "Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy." That is exactly what the markets have done this month.

That means the "pain trade" in September is for strong growth to continue, rates continue to creep higher, and the markets to go lower. What is happening with inflation? Here's the bad news: we have rarely been so clueless about the path of the economy. Is the economy going to reaccelerate, is it going to slow down just enough , or is it going to slow down much more than anticipated? Fed officials seem uncertain about what to do.

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