Fears about rising bond yields are way overblown. This has turned investor sentiment quite dark — and created a textbook contrarian buy signal.
2. Bonds are down because of renewed concerns about Fed tightening: We know this because of how bonds react to economic data. Bonds fell on October 3 after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an unexpected jump in August job openings to 9.61 million. The data had investors worried that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Conversely, bonds were strong on October 4 in part on news that Automatic Data Processing ADP, +1.48% reported weak employment data.
3. This is the market’s “spooky season,” but it always comes to an end: The U.S. stock market normally hits annual lows in October. This is partly because institutional investor tax-loss selling has to finish by month-end. But it also has to do with the weather. People traditionally go into harvest and caution mode ahead of the cold season.
5. 10-year bond yields are not that high, historically speaking: The 10-year Treasury bond yield has moved back to the 4%-5% that prevailed from 2003 to 2007, which was a good time to own stocks. For example, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY rose about 80% in that period. Indeed, rising rates have not hurt the U>S. economy this time around. “This raises the possibility that the economy can live with the bond yield back to its old normal level,” Yardeni says.
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