Jim Chalmers: Iron ore price, cooler job market to hit Treasury

Already a subscriber?The federal government’s revenue expectations will be downgraded significantly in the May budget due to falling commodity prices and a softening jobs market, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will reveal on Thursday.for this financial year, Dr Chalmers will send a message to colleagues, lobbyists and others looking for funds about the need for restraint due to a downgraded revenue windfall.

“There are important reasons for this. For instance, the price of iron ore has been falling – in the last week alone it has fallen by almost 10 per cent due to concerns about the demand for steel in China.“When I last looked on Tuesday morning it was trading at less than $US94 a tonne.” The vast majority of the $69 billion revenue windfall would come from income taxes, including bracket creep, as well as higher company taxes.

Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said iron ore prices were likely to temporarily fall below $US100 a tonne asprofit margins come under pressure in the short term. He said steel prices were falling in China due to weakness in the property sector. As such, CBA said prices should recover to hover around $US100 a tonne to $US110 a tonne during 2024.on Monday a second surplus remained “within striking distance” and with an election coming, it is understood the government is committed to delivering a surplus to bolster its economic management bona fides.Complicating his message, however, is his stated aim to use the budget to continue the fight against inflation while, at the same time, start spending to guard against slowing growth.

In his appearance at the Summit, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton nominated winding back some of Labor’s recent industrial relations policies, delivering cheaper energy and addressing the link between high immigration and the housing crisis as the tools to kick-starting economic growth and productivity.“There needs to be sensible changes and a realignment to industrial relations policy, which is problematic,” he said.

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