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Is Peak Emerging Market Debt Distress in the Past?

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In mid-2022, we published a series of reports focused on sovereign default risks in the emerging and frontier markets.

Summary Takeaways included how tighter monetary policy, a strong dollar and global economic malaise were weighing on developing nation's ability to service sovereign debt obligations. During the middle of 2022, we believed credit rating downgrades and a wave of sovereign defaults were likely to materialize.

While the global economy is not without challenges and uncertainties, we believe the global landscape has evolved in a way where emerging market sovereign default risks have come down and the most challenging post-COVID period for widespread sovereign stress in the developing world is in the past. In August 2022, when the global backdrop was arguably most concerning for emerging markets, we developed a framework to identify sovereigns potentially at risk of default.

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