The best outcome would be for the rating to remain unchanged at Baa3 after Friday’s review.
Fitch and S&P Global cut the country to “junk” status in 2017 amid concerns about its weak fiscal metrics and anaemic economic growth, but Moody’s still rates it at Baa3 with a stable outlook. Alternatively, Moody’s could leave the credit rating unchanged and merely change the outlook to negative. Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex, wrote in a column published this week: “Moody’s … is quite clearly showing an excess of hope despite their framework being meaningfully shocked in October 2018 and now after the budget .